Shale gas - are we ready for it?

     shale gas    l



    The optimists say that the discover of  shale oil and gas is the new hope for future energy, garnered from the shores round the UK.   The pessimists say the efforts to get it out, known as "fracking" would cause minor earthquakes and poison the local water around.   Alex Salmond, head of the Scottish government, is already in trouble with those saying he has endangered his green policies by giving approval to a plan to sell 12bn to 24bn barrels of oil and gas from Scotland for as estimated £1.5tn over the next 40 years.


        The US could be totally independent for its energy, now its shale oil and gas discoveries are being developed, freeing it from dependence on imports and hopefully, the international conflicts brought about by the global need for energy.   Marlan Downey, formerly President of Pecten (Shell) International, President of ARCO and a consultant with Atlantic Richfield, has been a pioneer in the discover of shale oil and gas in different parts of the world.   As a Fellow of the Geological Society of Great Britain, he is regularly consulted on the methods and practicalities of oil and gas development here.    He is well aware of the fear growing in Britain at the prospects of the accidents that could be caused while that is going on.   But the top academics and engineers in this country, the Royal Academy of Engineering and the Royal Society have given the all clear and said that fracking should be allowed to go ahead, with close monitoring.  The government have already gone along with this, though a former energy minister, Charles Hendry, is reported to have warned that shale gas could not bring the same benefits as in the USA, where consents were much easier and prices low.   It will be up to the Geological Society to advise on the safety or otherwise of fracking in the areas of  development.    Marlan Downey, on one of his regular visits to this country, also made this point to me.   "The restrictions on Crown land are strict here and investment will be more difficult than in the USA"
    But he holds out an alternative, the North Sea oilfields.  "Shale oil is there, in great abundance, but it will be expensive to produce, everywhere it is found.  The drilling and production costs may be treble the US onshore costs."   He raised the possibility of using North Sea oil rigs for the job, delaying their planned abandonment, to cut the high expenditure.  "The challenge is difficult, but think of the possible prize - 20 billion barrels recoverable, with huge investment in the UK of around two trillion dollars."   He is optimistic and expects to see the first barrel of shale oil coming out of the North Sea within a year, given the right economics in world oil price and contract terms. 

    But he said that no one had developed oil from offshore - yet.     Only four years ago the development of shale inshore had hardly begun, though already it has become a huge resource of the USA and other countries.   Obviously, offshore oil would avoid the objections to inshore developments, the fracking and the fear of contaminated water.
    
     He sees little first-hand research in the UK, but thinks the Geological Society, which is now involved in shale oil and gas,  has a fine resource of minds to tackle the problems and possibilities.
The North Sea brought unprecedented riches to the UK, which became the envy of Europe.   Has its time come again?

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